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The answer depends on population size, mutation supply and the shape of the fitness surface, in ways not yet quantified.","posed_since":"","precise":"For asexual microbial populations of size $N$ and beneficial mutation rate $U_b$ on an empirically measured fitness landscape, determine the probability that replicate populations follow the same mutational path or reach the same peak, and which landscape statistics (ruggedness, epistasis structure, distribution of fitness effects) control it. Answer: a theory that predicts measured repeatability in replicated evolution experiments.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Replicated evolution experiments on a fully mapped landscape whose path statistics match a parameter-free population-genetic prediction.","status_note":"","title":"How predictable and repeatable is 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