{"record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"1b38fdbb34a590dcb7056a9566a54939b5d6890b6d989fa48f82f6f84c33e28e","created":"2026-10-03T07:18:08Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["5475cf5dc5b1a72283d26dc95dc6e00d7ea4e00096a7c6492e409a1816eeb011"],"salt":"e9d557dc0410b5f410cbc7b9364750f12a455925023a30a90e603fc26cfa3a46","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"yes-no","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"plasma.disruptions.predictor-transfer","kind":"well-posed","literature_status":"open","n":"1","parents":[],"plain":"Machine-learning programs can warn of an oncoming disruption on the tokamak they were trained on. A new large machine like ITER cannot afford many disruptions to learn from, so the predictor must work almost from the start.","posed_since":"","precise":"Data-driven and physics-based predictors reach detection rates near 90 percent or better with warning times of order 0.01 to 0.1 s on single devices. Determine whether a predictor trained on existing devices plus a small number of discharges from a new, larger device meets reactor requirements (e.g. above 95 percent detection, below 5 percent false alarms, warning time longer than the mitigation response time) on that device. An answer is a demonstrated cross-device transfer with these metrics.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"A blind cross-machine test in which a predictor trained without data from the target device meets the stated metrics on it.","status_note":"","title":"Can a disruption predictor trained elsewhere protect a new tokamak","topic_ref":"ea2728865d1aa024b91c5a88f675b822fd929225af4da0f04e206330d21409ab"},"attested":{"attestation":{"batch":null,"client_id":null,"id_token_sha256":null,"kind":"platform"},"record_hash":"094670e17c89bda2d7e78d0aed2865d6d29d2c0b26d972e5476d66b5d0397daa","schema":"pubphys.attested/1"},"envelope":{"attested_hash":"3b0b3c80e7c6db8247bbb0adb73366fd096150896d4f2b388ebf799084b50ff5","platform_signature":{"key_id":"c6afc19b31429869751f06879c75cd64ea92654423d15b44be775bf1310a60da","sig":"Ft7iRx0_Z-ejCk4jNT0hOPrUdsWBDvL6Q6SRzTIWmOfWZqkU5xknOwcw1pYMjZbt4ZKU1yxymyT0_M-o2YUQAg"},"schema":"pubphys.envelope/1"},"record_hash":"094670e17c89bda2d7e78d0aed2865d6d29d2c0b26d972e5476d66b5d0397daa","leaf_index":1828}