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A new large machine like ITER cannot afford many disruptions to learn from, so the predictor must work almost from the start.","posed_since":"","precise":"Data-driven and physics-based predictors reach detection rates near 90 percent or better with warning times of order 0.01 to 0.1 s on single devices. Determine whether a predictor trained on existing devices plus a small number of discharges from a new, larger device meets reactor requirements (e.g. above 95 percent detection, below 5 percent false alarms, warning time longer than the mitigation response time) on that device. An answer is a demonstrated cross-device transfer with these metrics.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"A blind cross-machine test in which a predictor trained without data from the target device meets the stated metrics on it.","status_note":"","title":"Can a disruption predictor trained elsewhere protect a new 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