{"record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"b8194fa5f9ad90ee66025b3a6aa4fe7b79e0dffc259ce54a8c395445dd63fff3","created":"2026-10-15T23:43:22Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["ce59fb6cd812fc05906d0c60a71c75ea22bc686bcf38e7c3ef7010834d98ee7b","f312f67f50211e9c564e53eca1ab9bee06ef68a271e98fa3a08a980e5ab4edab"],"salt":"18c6994e179bda15d0d2f58f2f44231b628ff9680009241556014ed60cd3a4ac","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"yes-no","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"earth.geodynamo.reversal-forecast","kind":"well-posed","literature_status":"open","n":"2","parents":[],"plain":"The main part of the field has weakened over the last two centuries and a weak patch over the South Atlantic is growing. It is unknown whether such signs announce a coming flip.","posed_since":"","precise":"Using satellite-era, historical and archeomagnetic field models (axial dipole decline since about 1840, growth of the South Atlantic Anomaly), determine whether any observable statistic of the core-surface field forecasts a reversal or excursion within $10^{3}$ to $10^{4}$ yr with skill above chance. An answer is a forecasting statistic validated retrospectively on paleomagnetic records and on long dynamo simulations, or a demonstration, on long reversing dynamo simulations, that no core-surface statistic has skill above chance at these lead times.","problem_ref":"f312f67f50211e9c564e53eca1ab9bee06ef68a271e98fa3a08a980e5ab4edab","references":"","settled_by":"Retrospective forecast tests on long reversing dynamo simulations and on high-resolution sediment records of past reversals and excursions.","status_note":"","title":"Can an impending reversal or excursion be detected from today's field?","topic_ref":null},"attested":{"attestation":{"batch":null,"client_id":null,"id_token_sha256":null,"kind":"platform"},"record_hash":"1a0d60049df3385ad2b4999af061e7a0f48fa91746f3a89b179dc21a0dc6c03f","schema":"pubphys.attested/1"},"envelope":{"attested_hash":"f6cc59f0e7adc345d5df5441aa2a8c137ac46020a942860484e3084ce1f12537","platform_signature":{"key_id":"c6afc19b31429869751f06879c75cd64ea92654423d15b44be775bf1310a60da","sig":"65KKjAIOU--9ZWGFkBoOwzDCPD0xpUZ_1dE11tpJTlzRiBn1VKTLzYFfgvIQG4GuNZGE43PofHvnmw8va7kDCQ"},"schema":"pubphys.envelope/1"},"record_hash":"1a0d60049df3385ad2b4999af061e7a0f48fa91746f3a89b179dc21a0dc6c03f","leaf_index":3196}