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Whether and when that holds in high-dimensional systems like turbulence decides whether extremes can be computed rather than waited for.","posed_since":"","precise":"For stochastically forced systems (Burgers, 2D and 3D Navier-Stokes with Gaussian forcing of strength $\\epsilon$) and for deterministic chaotic systems, determine the observables $O$ and thresholds $z$ for which $P(O > z)$ is given asymptotically ($z \\to \\infty \\text{ or } \\epsilon \\to 0$) by a single minimizer of the Freidlin-Wentzell action, including the prefactor, and characterize failures due to fluctuations around the instanton or several competing paths. An answer is a classification with verified prefactors.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Comparison of instanton predictions, including prefactors, with rare-event sampling of tails over many orders of magnitude for a set of flows and observables.","status_note":"Instanton predictions match velocity-gradient tails in Burgers turbulence and some 2D flows; extremes in 3D Navier-Stokes turbulence are not settled.","title":"When single optimal paths dominate extreme 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