{"record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"229c3cd310a80ab9470d2d03c1bf443192beac4de32f38efd92852b1185a841d","created":"2026-10-03T07:17:55Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["5475cf5dc5b1a72283d26dc95dc6e00d7ea4e00096a7c6492e409a1816eeb011"],"salt":"f85bcd30ca4e875bff5f943b2cdf3200ed6880b95102fed392c205e07b5480b0","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"value","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"astro.solar-interior-cycle.cycle-26-amplitude","kind":"well-posed","literature_status":"open","n":"1","parents":[],"plain":"Space weather depends on how active the next solar cycle will be, and past forecasts have often missed.","posed_since":"","precise":"Predict the 13-month smoothed maximum sunspot number (SILSO version 2) of cycle 26 and its date, using polar magnetic field precursors at the cycle 25/26 minimum, surface flux transport models and dynamo data assimilation. Answer: a forecast with uncertainty registered before the minimum and scored against the observed maximum.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Comparison of forecasts registered before the cycle 25/26 minimum with the observed cycle 26 maximum.","status_note":"2024: cycle 25 reached its maximum in October 2024 with a smoothed sunspot number of about 161, above the 2019 NOAA-NASA panel forecast of 115.","title":"Predict the amplitude and timing of solar cycle 26","topic_ref":"198e5d8c650c549166ecfcbee7e1125fa6cc28a6930904820f971b95ad0953ee"},"attested":{"attestation":{"batch":null,"client_id":null,"id_token_sha256":null,"kind":"platform"},"record_hash":"439d681558aab220ea068d01ba18afd4f7873880b2f5bfdbe098a353d4ea311b","schema":"pubphys.attested/1"},"envelope":{"attested_hash":"c4f418d1616795933e1ee58390b44aee85b9fcb29ee90502ca044b972c694a61","platform_signature":{"key_id":"c6afc19b31429869751f06879c75cd64ea92654423d15b44be775bf1310a60da","sig":"b5E0yRORXoz0wjTWDHAsbs2wyqb6Dh2GsFMOde94BHx0TvZz5zd6nii6FqBOn6FPA4HrV8lEHPMopR0z3u2yBQ"},"schema":"pubphys.envelope/1"},"record_hash":"439d681558aab220ea068d01ba18afd4f7873880b2f5bfdbe098a353d4ea311b","leaf_index":619}