{"record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"527946ec3d871abefebcbe0b403b1c67b09ccaa904d411d5136bd5efa9634b17","created":"2026-10-03T07:18:02Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["5475cf5dc5b1a72283d26dc95dc6e00d7ea4e00096a7c6492e409a1816eeb011"],"salt":"df360dbffa74d67bc8e5ff95095a6de0ab24487a01e164c2dc0a8b9e88d5b6ed","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"yes-no","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"earth.amoc-ice-tipping.amoc-proximity","kind":"well-posed","literature_status":"contested","n":"1","parents":[],"plain":"Some studies claim statistical warning signs that the overturning circulation is losing stability, while direct measurements since 2004 are too short to show a clear trend. The question is whether a collapse is near.","posed_since":"","precise":"Using the RAPID array (since 2004), other transport arrays and proxy reconstructions (sea-surface temperature fingerprints, sediment grain size), determine whether the AMOC has declined since the mid-20th century beyond natural variability and whether early-warning indicators (rising variance and autocorrelation, freshwater-transport sign at 34 S) are physically valid for this system. An answer is a detected or rejected trend and stability-loss signal with stated confidence.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Multidecadal direct transport records combined with validated proxy indices showing a significant forced decline and a physically interpretable loss of resilience.","status_note":"Ditlevsen and Ditlevsen 2023 (Nature Communications) extrapolated a collapse between 2025 and 2095 from a sea-surface-temperature index, while RAPID transports since 2004 and the air-sea heat-flux reconstruction of Terhaar et al. 2025 (Nature Communications) show no significant decline, so the claim remains disputed.","title":"Is the AMOC already weakening toward collapse today?","topic_ref":"7fc551459998c7e7a33c78a6d1d9264023c488edce1886a95542649f021e0b20"},"attested":{"attestation":{"batch":null,"client_id":null,"id_token_sha256":null,"kind":"platform"},"record_hash":"4fa7cd8a783eb10dfb4a73e9754a3de7b37f8ce117863e04dfca5483396b44c8","schema":"pubphys.attested/1"},"envelope":{"attested_hash":"b5840457510fe4dfc6fb6aa1ca3da83ea21ad814eebed5f4e97eb93927bb27e3","platform_signature":{"key_id":"c6afc19b31429869751f06879c75cd64ea92654423d15b44be775bf1310a60da","sig":"mf-bUxIqkD6nSKeXeFJDNzvEksMW2vV3fd1InaCVUMAU-ETR-yqAAW8BGXFJK5kQ0yxSUw72IhlyHH28GJOMAA"},"schema":"pubphys.envelope/1"},"record_hash":"4fa7cd8a783eb10dfb4a73e9754a3de7b37f8ce117863e04dfca5483396b44c8","leaf_index":1284}