{"schema":"pubphys.bundle/1","record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"527946ec3d871abefebcbe0b403b1c67b09ccaa904d411d5136bd5efa9634b17","created":"2026-10-03T07:18:02Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["5475cf5dc5b1a72283d26dc95dc6e00d7ea4e00096a7c6492e409a1816eeb011"],"salt":"df360dbffa74d67bc8e5ff95095a6de0ab24487a01e164c2dc0a8b9e88d5b6ed","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"yes-no","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"earth.amoc-ice-tipping.amoc-proximity","kind":"well-posed","literature_status":"contested","n":"1","parents":[],"plain":"Some studies claim statistical warning signs that the overturning circulation is losing stability, while direct measurements since 2004 are too short to show a clear trend. The question is whether a collapse is near.","posed_since":"","precise":"Using the RAPID array (since 2004), other transport arrays and proxy reconstructions (sea-surface temperature fingerprints, sediment grain size), determine whether the AMOC has declined since the mid-20th century beyond natural variability and whether early-warning indicators (rising variance and autocorrelation, freshwater-transport sign at 34 S) are physically valid for this system. An answer is a detected or rejected trend and stability-loss signal with stated confidence.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Multidecadal direct transport records combined with validated proxy indices showing a significant forced decline and a physically interpretable loss of resilience.","status_note":"Ditlevsen and Ditlevsen 2023 (Nature Communications) extrapolated a collapse between 2025 and 2095 from a sea-surface-temperature index, while RAPID transports since 2004 and the air-sea heat-flux reconstruction of Terhaar et al. 2025 (Nature Communications) show no significant decline, so the claim remains disputed.","title":"Is the AMOC already weakening toward collapse today?","topic_ref":"7fc551459998c7e7a33c78a6d1d9264023c488edce1886a95542649f021e0b20"},"content_withheld":"false","files":[],"attested":{"attestation":{"batch":null,"client_id":null,"id_token_sha256":null,"kind":"platform"},"record_hash":"4fa7cd8a783eb10dfb4a73e9754a3de7b37f8ce117863e04dfca5483396b44c8","schema":"pubphys.attested/1"},"id_token":null,"id_token_withheld":"false","envelope":{"attested_hash":"b5840457510fe4dfc6fb6aa1ca3da83ea21ad814eebed5f4e97eb93927bb27e3","platform_signature":{"key_id":"c6afc19b31429869751f06879c75cd64ea92654423d15b44be775bf1310a60da","sig":"mf-bUxIqkD6nSKeXeFJDNzvEksMW2vV3fd1InaCVUMAU-ETR-yqAAW8BGXFJK5kQ0yxSUw72IhlyHH28GJOMAA"},"schema":"pubphys.envelope/1"},"ots":{"attested":["AE9wZW5UaW1lc3RhbXBzAABQcm9vZgC_ieLohOiSlAEItYQEV1EP5N_G-2qhyj2oPqIa2BTuvtX06X65OSe7J-PxILWDTkcoT4hwhOAkcLqXGTQ3dxJ_fD3PfEPwJ3ysWhVhCPEgcY8zg7WYFIe9lKn7yM2Pr35Tz2eMhI4mddCHYV6mNtsI8SACMNJjaIa9r1s4dOsqAUztM6xcAC3MXcRcItMrC6yQwQjxIB9DDgd57kp1CJUYF-1cdsXUELBxpePM4Kxu3aK9dzuKCPAgaaKnY4tLIKX7Amwj0BGCzNk0uQbtxP_VHg7Yx2h-l0UI8SBE9JBSeaxZ_ym70s6DMr6dtIgZGwis9uV00YisuztiwQjwICiraB_7UgXCeuS2UG4RwGVUB0TTDW9SPZX6Cm6ovyuOCPEg4rqGLBuUkm_3jUcKp88ZZh3m3UlQLzvNY7ka68qj80wI8SCDmR0G6GV1bT7GyRXBqEjvzcE3qRopJxP_SHiWmwBlpQjxIFf8EhaVa-ubjpYx3wEAcKGxkzfUQq6B-8jimpRd8IqnCPAgy6DmLQtIuWm-zrDRmaSy95vcFWsjvWyppQO7wIWrfC4I8SAQuuTPkAGyvS_wKMy9BtKvnki2puESdY2vXem8hT1uIQjwIBGYo5Vxy-d7U5zKv5vp3Ii7hJPH_BDLCzA13c47p9q7CP_wCHbghVgOFMuNCPAQPZK2lHbTMqcCYUotzOQcmQjwIJ7ruRIs6HnufKxCpmLUgeUl0aUu0ov4_3PqcppS-bddCPEgI530vHzdwz_3o9jYQ3WablSaV64Wfn7Pmby5WLyI-A0I8QRqwKw78AhITF7Tr3a1xP8Ag9_jDS75DI4sK2h0dHBzOi8vYm9iLmJ0Yy5jYWxlbmRhci5vcGVudGltZXN0YW1wcy5vcmcI8CBXWeNiWFWltfHE0nkDXsVKIykUUwuObhsnN-2fvBt98gjwIM5Vf7j68sOFgVysYMc5S09Hho-fqxYW3oQ4oKUX7JpPCPAgaKHHQB3sdd9w1hu4NMh7vmb-p0X2r4uyVKKCj1G7S28I8SAW2Mg6Bzi9ygjrrjIYB7w90fwMcxH24SsqLmzPyAMGfwjwIMQ863zlveYIpNKWVrZaDOa4vowwoOg2CcTW8gXtxK3dCPEgrZxGGAf-t8jhz_eLMUyBN1IhNrdYDRcNHWvQcwNG9woI8CCVOUHG1YXudbaFIgUYvrCIevRWvb2ubhQAo-z0duD0rQjxIDBeKerVGkO3J2eXDwdraSioXbIWsdIPEN1s8pIwJIS2CPAgV2kB3n3JZ5HwBQjpRL1CWKnqvdCjZk3RcALk6N2wHigI8CB-wbljNlfqElD25uZkNg6taS81YDRU2vfMqGVQ420O9AjxWQEAAAABJM43UU6MLMRrPlCUqossvu1q_knons5yylyWTgxZzWUAAAAAAP7___8CLgABAAAAAAAWABQrYt3E7OllKRCEmL3FL589l78_5wAAAAAAAAAAImog8ATiyw4ACAjxILmbcIO7ixv3pCtwUMZ1VQGKus54F9lZ8-w5ECD5ZuiICAjwIG6ynCyFTLPE7Rgk-0ZGCtBDyqNQx8YvaSZNHy8D8p8jCAjwIMX8zoD2Be1YWvcx_bexVPRmBX0hK-do8b8t9SarimQVCAjxIG6XtpqIEclLlhzcK1LVjqoPGrjjmLnyno8tcETMzECECAjwIF6mlfXOFY51JhrK4eze8zQlKV75OYZYqbtyi8BWxmAsCAjwIKKUcJmVoz-u-geiRV_-ZHdF0VEPXaEPFWf_JX_0e7G2CAjxIGMeD0Z5QWNKBcAEpHht007FFIILW6aSJ8f3CMkKNsneCAjwIBFr6Je8rkB7kwhPGbq0yRgFwZsvW9JhY5sXDRtrq0QwCAjwIAHAwXaus-yUgKICJB5mVvx8VZuJgjwnpb0qWPg1pi6DCAjxIAJhb8cefkVHTAMymdsxa-_i-tUua62LcpALQnPG7R9_CAjwIDvsFqBhPfAL6TCtXZd7gBWmMpx6iiZ-Ug0Jf_LlcstgCAjwIDJRBX6Q0Vge-ra-k1_g76yJWTEp6WWF13I3JpTnsZPJCAjwILykZCbkC9VQgl5gytPKKir6T9nTvKR6y05iWSHBTQgzCAgABYiWDXPXGQED45c78Ah-sGbmQAwfZwjwEAYqxtHnZiPZnJEGPx_JvKsI8SDXkqDg17YsZIrEz5acRx7mBXCKW5mKNgRYnw_-U2cpDgjxBGrArDrwCEfK6Mono428_wCD3-MNLvkMji4taHR0cHM6Ly9hbGljZS5idGMuY2FsZW5kYXIub3BlbnRpbWVzdGFtcHMub3JnCPAg10nyJ6Jn4kshQQQCKE0Lvj3hBC6nLRBVIzaPV4eh8VwI8CCQaAqWlxEbac_XOq1MOlf9iOKHEsxXspzbjK0vLpy8BwjwII3iRbRXUcDxrhAdkZmFlI15nySCSEZ7g922tF1Xln5DCPEgYYvZ1L4v4rPu_UqLfcHPtwSb2OH2GhPgVcVhhH6DpkQI8CDZCIoR20sC-uchP40oAmcLm9EJFV7xzwplj54AeVadXQjxILvLBjPFpCoz29m9Yf2qRnV7PI9GqxE8ozVQfk9QwCqrCPEgZXcMudvEoB_MJ8tqOW2PLTKAIeQBnE-1bfzptRc2gR8I8VkBAAAAAfXq-bmxWqOz7B5wKkwjzHGv2R4s7Y0Z76LqXWYNhmz0AAAAAAD-____Av0cAAAAAAAAFgAUl-skmdZDtn7Hnub6mF4HP2uVn7oAAAAAAAAAACJqIPAE4MsOAAgI8CBDmQsbEXc46Hu8DivhCBM1LGExa4TTM-wo7HpoCVjBTQgI8CCty5vkQtPHzzs8xqArOYhVSjgaDoG1ou3cojv5_P7wQQgI8SDQWB0kdXCTwbk-TqTt0QfRMyzDNLOtU1XXFgvGSRlW8wgI8CC2PKa_QCIBZtrXodq1GdEzppISMsMRDOnzr2gFjLKOAAgI8CCwQ_QF67bcFk_uJ2s0VCZmf5PGIjTmTCpt_qnVY5p_8AgI8SAbzyx7z-oxPMju6PvtQhzrJIQyH2ZAc9oyLuYemzbmZQgI8CC5bh7J74uUk91r8LwybHQFCNBC3PWeuwtMCCNFKWj19AgI8SAf4R2TUNPjaX_PWDUImpoITK0JoW89zaMKnD1wlEEi8AgI8SC2vNmdm7eyP5Ytl1yTzT0njliMdALl1ViKG-s3bG2zswgI8CCpbIVNz1GFVXdJk2zd82hBUoNFFemUPBt7IJdWEOciPwgI8CBtYdRQcrtX1FtCm1SxF7sx-5cO04U8KzbJh8fqBkyReAgI8CBHs2LGmX6gI-lV7yp1RrV7_tGfdiBAwnEFF6B6yXHzAQgI8CATotVmbXBMAixhZ-QKy5Q4lR0FusdA_wcIC1TbB7GmxAgIAAWIlg1z1xkBA-KXOw"],"envelope":["AE9wZW5UaW1lc3RhbXBzAABQcm9vZgC_ieLohOiSlAEIoRP8VjhKSxuqpBi3w4_80CM8fNYQQufQiS_ZaXWfRarxIKEM8UP485px4sPIna8MGzrFcskwxqCY_k1wQeXbKOrdCPAgP5_DUx_i6Pscp-JizQ7NgwaIUzJNr3IKmJthvR_W29oI8SCcOHY-Yk1apWxLuvfZx0HNPQBPySf1bvSqeJAQqEWObAjxIPmy4TnqQpA2vDtiE7ivKok2Wa88kF1gXlXcWbb5av5zCPEgN0A_za7PUFzfV2Zdsv9p1Cqn5s--idHSIeDp-eY-OH8I8CCIMk9RoFMmDJyhP4I1_sEfEhquG5V1jkCEIEKxRxP-aQjxIPI2YHFp5-hEhbA3u1YYxqA-eRn3lhCzT289jqUM_lJHCPAgwmK3CUEOY-5QE2iSOuU3W3YgTzeiLK0zofehysSfjssI8CB0Pk63gwyd_u5K2K1drJW3UxU3mXTBkDKQdutj6_nnEgjxIFf8EhaVa-ubjpYx3wEAcKGxkzfUQq6B-8jimpRd8IqnCPAgy6DmLQtIuWm-zrDRmaSy95vcFWsjvWyppQO7wIWrfC4I8SAQuuTPkAGyvS_wKMy9BtKvnki2puESdY2vXem8hT1uIQjwIBGYo5Vxy-d7U5zKv5vp3Ii7hJPH_BDLCzA13c47p9q7CP_wCHbghVgOFMuNCPAQPZK2lHbTMqcCYUotzOQcmQjwIJ7ruRIs6HnufKxCpmLUgeUl0aUu0ov4_3PqcppS-bddCPEgI530vHzdwz_3o9jYQ3WablSaV64Wfn7Pmby5WLyI-A0I8QRqwKw78AhITF7Tr3a1xP8Ag9_jDS75DI4sK2h0dHBzOi8vYm9iLmJ0Yy5jYWxlbmRhci5vcGVudGltZXN0YW1wcy5vcmcI8CBXWeNiWFWltfHE0nkDXsVKIykUUwuObhsnN-2fvBt98gjwIM5Vf7j68sOFgVysYMc5S09Hho-fqxYW3oQ4oKUX7JpPCPAgaKHHQB3sdd9w1hu4NMh7vmb-p0X2r4uyVKKCj1G7S28I8SAW2Mg6Bzi9ygjrrjIYB7w90fwMcxH24SsqLmzPyAMGfwjwIMQ863zlveYIpNKWVrZaDOa4vowwoOg2CcTW8gXtxK3dCPEgrZxGGAf-t8jhz_eLMUyBN1IhNrdYDRcNHWvQcwNG9woI8CCVOUHG1YXudbaFIgUYvrCIevRWvb2ubhQAo-z0duD0rQjxIDBeKerVGkO3J2eXDwdraSioXbIWsdIPEN1s8pIwJIS2CPAgV2kB3n3JZ5HwBQjpRL1CWKnqvdCjZk3RcALk6N2wHigI8CB-wbljNlfqElD25uZkNg6taS81YDRU2vfMqGVQ420O9AjxWQEAAAABJM43UU6MLMRrPlCUqossvu1q_knons5yylyWTgxZzWUAAAAAAP7___8CLgABAAAAAAAWABQrYt3E7OllKRCEmL3FL589l78_5wAAAAAAAAAAImog8ATiyw4ACAjxILmbcIO7ixv3pCtwUMZ1VQGKus54F9lZ8-w5ECD5ZuiICAjwIG6ynCyFTLPE7Rgk-0ZGCtBDyqNQx8YvaSZNHy8D8p8jCAjwIMX8zoD2Be1YWvcx_bexVPRmBX0hK-do8b8t9SarimQVCAjxIG6XtpqIEclLlhzcK1LVjqoPGrjjmLnyno8tcETMzECECAjwIF6mlfXOFY51JhrK4eze8zQlKV75OYZYqbtyi8BWxmAsCAjwIKKUcJmVoz-u-geiRV_-ZHdF0VEPXaEPFWf_JX_0e7G2CAjxIGMeD0Z5QWNKBcAEpHht007FFIILW6aSJ8f3CMkKNsneCAjwIBFr6Je8rkB7kwhPGbq0yRgFwZsvW9JhY5sXDRtrq0QwCAjwIAHAwXaus-yUgKICJB5mVvx8VZuJgjwnpb0qWPg1pi6DCAjxIAJhb8cefkVHTAMymdsxa-_i-tUua62LcpALQnPG7R9_CAjwIDvsFqBhPfAL6TCtXZd7gBWmMpx6iiZ-Ug0Jf_LlcstgCAjwIDJRBX6Q0Vge-ra-k1_g76yJWTEp6WWF13I3JpTnsZPJCAjwILykZCbkC9VQgl5gytPKKir6T9nTvKR6y05iWSHBTQgzCAgABYiWDXPXGQED45c78Ah-sGbmQAwfZwjwEAYqxtHnZiPZnJEGPx_JvKsI8SDXkqDg17YsZIrEz5acRx7mBXCKW5mKNgRYnw_-U2cpDgjxBGrArDrwCEfK6Mono428_wCD3-MNLvkMji4taHR0cHM6Ly9hbGljZS5idGMuY2FsZW5kYXIub3BlbnRpbWVzdGFtcHMub3JnCPAg10nyJ6Jn4kshQQQCKE0Lvj3hBC6nLRBVIzaPV4eh8VwI8CCQaAqWlxEbac_XOq1MOlf9iOKHEsxXspzbjK0vLpy8BwjwII3iRbRXUcDxrhAdkZmFlI15nySCSEZ7g922tF1Xln5DCPEgYYvZ1L4v4rPu_UqLfcHPtwSb2OH2GhPgVcVhhH6DpkQI8CDZCIoR20sC-uchP40oAmcLm9EJFV7xzwplj54AeVadXQjxILvLBjPFpCoz29m9Yf2qRnV7PI9GqxE8ozVQfk9QwCqrCPEgZXcMudvEoB_MJ8tqOW2PLTKAIeQBnE-1bfzptRc2gR8I8VkBAAAAAfXq-bmxWqOz7B5wKkwjzHGv2R4s7Y0Z76LqXWYNhmz0AAAAAAD-____Av0cAAAAAAAAFgAUl-skmdZDtn7Hnub6mF4HP2uVn7oAAAAAAAAAACJqIPAE4MsOAAgI8CBDmQsbEXc46Hu8DivhCBM1LGExa4TTM-wo7HpoCVjBTQgI8CCty5vkQtPHzzs8xqArOYhVSjgaDoG1ou3cojv5_P7wQQgI8SDQWB0kdXCTwbk-TqTt0QfRMyzDNLOtU1XXFgvGSRlW8wgI8CC2PKa_QCIBZtrXodq1GdEzppISMsMRDOnzr2gFjLKOAAgI8CCwQ_QF67bcFk_uJ2s0VCZmf5PGIjTmTCpt_qnVY5p_8AgI8SAbzyx7z-oxPMju6PvtQhzrJIQyH2ZAc9oyLuYemzbmZQgI8CC5bh7J74uUk91r8LwybHQFCNBC3PWeuwtMCCNFKWj19AgI8SAf4R2TUNPjaX_PWDUImpoITK0JoW89zaMKnD1wlEEi8AgI8SC2vNmdm7eyP5Ytl1yTzT0njliMdALl1ViKG-s3bG2zswgI8CCpbIVNz1GFVXdJk2zd82hBUoNFFemUPBt7IJdWEOciPwgI8CBtYdRQcrtX1FtCm1SxF7sx-5cO04U8KzbJh8fqBkyReAgI8CBHs2LGmX6gI-lV7yp1RrV7_tGfdiBAwnEFF6B6yXHzAQgI8CATotVmbXBMAixhZ-QKy5Q4lR0FusdA_wcIC1TbB7GmxAgIAAWIlg1z1xkBA-KXOw"]},"log":{"leaf_index":"1284","tree_size":"2123","proof":["4e6dcf493b7ff7c71ae23d797f4d64eae42023043c034cdaca84d0b53e5a587b","abdfaa276fecefe7e63c889dab78589991265fe0fb39db2949a539b73cf8594c","aa9cd06bf774f87a78a81bfd6540b7b7b04c7a615e1403319a465eb27c791585","856ed10da5f0b91ea0c58f2a5e7185c8ee390d1dfe8ea9ce937bf508aabb6aca","6ac03730f76c59a852d413df9f97cf46066a77ac9b5437b1296b6e588d2fa78b","ef4d584bf82b000c1745003c2505c4771b5b259ff9a0b7bfeb9578f0e3f6943c","3a0202ef0834a0813e1492a9d56a81314551d688766baf601fbd1b116bc610c2","98160a74f0c064a3ca4a80464f21c444233b720409364e2b2bc71ff3c684846c","1dfea13acc3bebe31dadf39f646a423842e5bda8ab6493677ce2c28c00308b40","46022fbfd43c5aec3acbe84cb58891547da533c0320c5435c86490a040251104","2b97406e15e4d451a5450b3b53b677749fe0fa759579146dbfa1544c1e61a0ed","addcf2e0ff7974e4aa99af5e30d409f90d9f4311a4d85f5baf3e125eeb45b4c1"],"checkpoint":"pubphys.com/log/v1\n2123\npXVcluz7BF4vgChQs6lShuU0386gCH0RxrC1sxyE3rI=\n\n— pubphys.com/log/v1 JFPwIOLzsUD22XoTVyTfk/FMVj/u3f3DxZk4V/Ws10KVSS+8WQSwhunQ//EAhyS9Td5CyM0E++85GMezmKd8240j9Q8=\n","promise":null},"orcid_key_evidence":[],"attesting":null}