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Narrowing that range has proved hard for decades.","posed_since":"1896","precise":"Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is the equilibrium global-mean surface air temperature change for doubled $\\mathrm{CO_2}$ (forcing about $4\\mathrm{e}3\\,\\mathrm{erg}/(\\mathrm{s}\\,\\mathrm{cm}^{2})$). The 2020 multi-evidence assessment gives a 66 percent range of about $2.6\\ \\text{to}\\ 3.9\\,\\mathrm{K}$ and the 2021 IPCC assessment a likely range of $2.5\\ \\text{to}\\ 4\\,\\mathrm{K}$. An answer is a 66 percent range narrower than $1\\,\\mathrm{K}$ consistent with process, historical and paleoclimate evidence.","problem_ref":"0c7c9ed5e2d8fd1bd3bece5152d8c6e1a644e52fc34fec7edad9f38e0680915e","references":"","settled_by":"Process-level constraints on cloud feedbacks combined with paleoclimate and historical energy-budget estimates that agree within a sub-kelvin range.","status_note":"","title":"What is Earth's equilibrium climate 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