{"record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"a50527e705b8cff46d61c5ce3be49e1a22bcad11d1fb003e4b3f30bd17f78100","created":"2026-10-03T07:18:02Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["0c7c9ed5e2d8fd1bd3bece5152d8c6e1a644e52fc34fec7edad9f38e0680915e","5475cf5dc5b1a72283d26dc95dc6e00d7ea4e00096a7c6492e409a1816eeb011"],"salt":"c02a8f3229c91e9f14171567644a130951d8285bc49bd7a1f79600ac54acdeef","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"yes-no","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"earth.climate-sensitivity.hot-models","kind":"well-posed","literature_status":"partially-resolved","n":"1","parents":[{"note":"","parent_revision":"0c7c9ed5e2d8fd1bd3bece5152d8c6e1a644e52fc34fec7edad9f38e0680915e","relation":"special_case"}],"plain":"Several recent climate models warm by more than 5 degrees for doubled CO2. Past climates such as the last ice age may show this is too much.","posed_since":"","precise":"Determine whether combined constraints from the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Pliocene, the early Eocene and the historical record exclude $\\mathrm{ECS} > 5\\ \\mathrm{K}$ at the 95 percent level, accounting for state dependence of feedbacks and forcing uncertainties. An answer is a posterior probability for $\\mathrm{ECS} > 5\\ \\mathrm{K}$ with stated assumptions.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Bayesian synthesis of paleoclimate proxies and model emergent constraints with explicit state-dependence and structural uncertainty.","status_note":"","title":"Can paleoclimate evidence rule out climate sensitivity above 5 K?","topic_ref":"9825ae6297d7163c036f24262af4c46a63835d02712ce8b2f6de7b3820ec47e6"},"attested":{"attestation":{"batch":null,"client_id":null,"id_token_sha256":null,"kind":"platform"},"record_hash":"7119c8ec09e1f8562bd693417ae0b63a3e1c01b4bceda73403c0ce2c2ce6b719","schema":"pubphys.attested/1"},"envelope":{"attested_hash":"6677d2bcb8acd30d016c1957d697dc1e23290cba448d55d383ce873ff407244b","platform_signature":{"key_id":"c6afc19b31429869751f06879c75cd64ea92654423d15b44be775bf1310a60da","sig":"gMZYAqYnq8ZpPmDDIF3cdO6-lE7nQmgqjQTX_ZffL4papwh1wOnHawGzqy8MVlHdYNshJVXB3USBeC4zgsdBCg"},"schema":"pubphys.envelope/1"},"record_hash":"7119c8ec09e1f8562bd693417ae0b63a3e1c01b4bceda73403c0ce2c2ce6b719","leaf_index":1299}