{"schema":"pubphys.bundle/1","record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"92f5845e5cf3cd1fb4c0714d345e1e811ddce8a207e648649fd7e813d6ded707","created":"2026-10-03T07:18:02Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["5475cf5dc5b1a72283d26dc95dc6e00d7ea4e00096a7c6492e409a1816eeb011"],"salt":"20e2f60cab0447d0f5df073c7204b28c97915c0280a2ec4d5f0d4debc6cfe211","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"yes-no","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"earth.earthquake-physics.final-size-determinism","kind":"well-posed","literature_status":"contested","n":"1","parents":[],"plain":"A small and a giant earthquake may start out looking identical. Whether the first seconds of shaking already reveal how big the quake will get decides how useful early warning can be.","posed_since":"","precise":"Using global catalogs of source time functions, determine whether the moment-rate function in the first few seconds statistically predicts the final moment magnitude $M_w$ for large events (weak or strong determinism), or whether growth is universal until arrest. An answer is a statistically significant discrimination of final $M_w$ from early moment rate, with stated scatter, or proof of indistinguishability.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Analysis of near-field and teleseismic source time functions of many $M \\ge 7$ events with uniform processing.","status_note":"Meier and coauthors (Science, 2017) reported universal initial moment-rate growth for large subduction earthquakes, while other source-time-function studies report weak determinism; contested as of 2025.","title":"Is an earthquake's final magnitude determined in its first 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