{"record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"de35a051232588713f083da5bbce4217232175f8d135f608ac5f5e0285bdab9d","created":"2026-10-03T07:18:03Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["5475cf5dc5b1a72283d26dc95dc6e00d7ea4e00096a7c6492e409a1816eeb011"],"salt":"9d712149413c6f240e49c9da3c96261224817f0e94c4a541522677bca685c961","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"yes-no","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"earth.space-weather.cme-bz","kind":"well-posed","literature_status":"open","n":"1","parents":[],"plain":"A coronal mass ejection (CME, a cloud of magnetized gas thrown out by the Sun) causes a big storm only if its magnetic field points opposite to Earth's. Today that direction is measured only about an hour before arrival, by a spacecraft just upstream of Earth.","posed_since":"","precise":"Predict the time series of the north-south interplanetary magnetic field component $B_z$ inside a CME at $1\\,\\mathrm{au}$ from observations at or near the Sun (photospheric magnetograms, coronagraph images), including rotation, deflection and erosion during propagation. An answer is a forecast method that achieves skill above climatology in $B_z$ sign and magnitude with lead time of a day or more.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Blind forecasts for a statistical sample of CMEs scored against in-situ $B_z$ at L1, beating climatological and persistence baselines.","status_note":"","title":"Can a CME's magnetic orientation be predicted before arrival?","topic_ref":"c62d27d07d103f28438741ee418d7f935e55da8e998677d5c94818ed943bc510"},"attested":{"attestation":{"batch":null,"client_id":null,"id_token_sha256":null,"kind":"platform"},"record_hash":"75828ec8313c29541de904c4ecf3280e0393daee1e60e08b08f0e3ba33b77f47","schema":"pubphys.attested/1"},"envelope":{"attested_hash":"cc528b367f3ba9396f8204d1aee597a81383ce41d98f5c6555555a22908fcdf1","platform_signature":{"key_id":"c6afc19b31429869751f06879c75cd64ea92654423d15b44be775bf1310a60da","sig":"7DkaFNB0P29KrYPD5nozWVCLuu0SZ9B5SFk7O76KKtf4-IgcdZRAKHNAwfcxh6fSinjQlM89hpyVikOYfV58AQ"},"schema":"pubphys.envelope/1"},"record_hash":"75828ec8313c29541de904c4ecf3280e0393daee1e60e08b08f0e3ba33b77f47","leaf_index":1371}