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Today that direction is measured only about an hour before arrival, by a spacecraft just upstream of Earth.","posed_since":"","precise":"Predict the time series of the north-south interplanetary magnetic field component $B_z$ inside a CME at $1\\,\\mathrm{au}$ from observations at or near the Sun (photospheric magnetograms, coronagraph images), including rotation, deflection and erosion during propagation. An answer is a forecast method that achieves skill above climatology in $B_z$ sign and magnitude with lead time of a day or more.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Blind forecasts for a statistical sample of CMEs scored against in-situ $B_z$ at L1, beating climatological and persistence baselines.","status_note":"","title":"Can a CME's magnetic orientation be predicted before 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