{"schema":"pubphys.bundle/1","record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"b74b514433ee19bc8aa710ef50f2644cb4b48f4516e758406b018c3265ac2f38","created":"2026-10-03T07:18:10Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["5475cf5dc5b1a72283d26dc95dc6e00d7ea4e00096a7c6492e409a1816eeb011"],"salt":"db1e6e23d5a6c0d4b2d3fecda2f900c4eb88d24f0512cead8a54127656faa2e5","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"value","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"stat.extreme-events-predictability.extreme-event-lead-time","kind":"well-posed","literature_status":"open","n":"1","parents":[],"plain":"Even with a perfect model, an extreme event can be forecast only some time ahead, set by how errors grow. The open question is how this lead time compares with the ordinary forecast limit, and whether rare events are more or less predictable than typical ones.","posed_since":"","precise":"For a chaotic system with known equations (Kolmogorov flow, high-dimensional Lorenz-96) and initial uncertainty $\\delta_0$, determine the maximal lead time at which events of an observable above its 99.9th percentile can be forecast with given precision and recall, in units of the inverse maximal Lyapunov exponent, and its relation to finite-time Lyapunov exponents along precursor trajectories. An answer is a scaling law for lead time versus $\\delta_0$ and event size.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Ensemble forecasts in model flows at several $\\delta_0$ and thresholds, matched by a theory based on finite-time instabilities.","status_note":"A 2024 study examines limits to extreme-event forecasting in model chaotic flows (arXiv:2401.16512).","title":"Lead-time limits for forecasting extreme events in chaotic systems","topic_ref":"3cc2a242217c0631de30c1e7f17b417925702a48deedb658cb354b09c691f239"},"content_withheld":"false","files":[],"attested":{"attestation":{"batch":null,"client_id":null,"id_token_sha256":null,"kind":"platform"},"record_hash":"7ef3274299a9f15f4d2df1eec6ade64e403c07e416abbe945638d7e16e00d168","schema":"pubphys.attested/1"},"id_token":null,"id_token_withheld":"false","envelope":{"attested_hash":"50fd1cf53c85e773a7c8ca33719bdecdee350e089436bf68a4f65a40a278b3bb","platform_signature":{"key_id":"c6afc19b31429869751f06879c75cd64ea92654423d15b44be775bf1310a60da","sig":"5y67ZEh6QPYMe2g8ootg5Zhd7neHlizHSe-KkJGc8_1pf3CzKedB3kFliISryak-xTFiyIFYE-nt2MEYzK-5DQ"},"schema":"pubphys.envelope/1"},"ots":{"attested":["AE9wZW5UaW1lc3RhbXBzAABQcm9vZgC_ieLohOiSlAEIUP0c9TyF53OnyMozcZveze41DgiUNr9opPZaQKJ4s7vxIFD8_F2B56sCR9K_DGgIEzoIEKTVqTyhh69VjWF_YwIcCPAgpyc6m1USkdHXKqM6WSFG8RgsMkGawBkicvsdwyHh9IcI8CDxH4BWhWVZMYbCm36tEFkJXQnfjm-X7M-5ooendw6trwjwIMB7WCzJDN1qBpMXc271RCZs-2l5AX8EpMRRjb6eb_XpCPEg7cTXRdMu1yhedBEz-olup0LuuEQwp20z-f9cncC7XOwI8SAxwG9g9_nn6TYOrQOjZdN9MGtLvQXgRouazdg7W-7vNgjwIE_Ct2JXhXZOFrsA1fkKo-7MAWeAKE0lpi7QCYMFaWO4CPAggG0c9dn3XrxlzuzT_Y1TEWzzs-EmhaWa_H096ngdNMoI8SCuet_E6kln8_ZRXavjld8BdUsVBp253AP3BX1K8IYKnwjwIK9SXvHBwgJE5CknXtp2lOqKcbHlJ-ncP9sNjnTHUJsmCPEgytIBB3x7TFDT-XqOV-9vpqw1NKoAu0dhtsCbAMql2L0I8CCtNZgmApuKULvPC9nsMCaM05arV-F3o5FTlnJCnRvdMgjwIBGYo5Vxy-d7U5zKv5vp3Ii7hJPH_BDLCzA13c47p9q7CP_wCHbghVgOFMuNCPAQPZK2lHbTMqcCYUotzOQcmQjwIJ7ruRIs6HnufKxCpmLUgeUl0aUu0ov4_3PqcppS-bddCPEgI530vHzdwz_3o9jYQ3WablSaV64Wfn7Pmby5WLyI-A0I8QRqwKw78AhITF7Tr3a1xP8Ag9_jDS75DI4sK2h0dHBzOi8vYm9iLmJ0Yy5jYWxlbmRhci5vcGVudGltZXN0YW1wcy5vcmcI8CBXWeNiWFWltfHE0nkDXsVKIykUUwuObhsnN-2fvBt98gjwIM5Vf7j68sOFgVysYMc5S09Hho-fqxYW3oQ4oKUX7JpPCPAgaKHHQB3sdd9w1hu4NMh7vmb-p0X2r4uyVKKCj1G7S28I8SAW2Mg6Bzi9ygjrrjIYB7w90fwMcxH24SsqLmzPyAMGfwjwIMQ863zlveYIpNKWVrZaDOa4vowwoOg2CcTW8gXtxK3dCPEgrZxGGAf-t8jhz_eLMUyBN1IhNrdYDRcNHWvQcwNG9woI8CCVOUHG1YXudbaFIgUYvrCIevRWvb2ubhQAo-z0duD0rQjxIDBeKerVGkO3J2eXDwdraSioXbIWsdIPEN1s8pIwJIS2CPAgV2kB3n3JZ5HwBQjpRL1CWKnqvdCjZk3RcALk6N2wHigI8CB-wbljNlfqElD25uZkNg6taS81YDRU2vfMqGVQ420O9AjxWQEAAAABJM43UU6MLMRrPlCUqossvu1q_knons5yylyWTgxZzWUAAAAAAP7___8CLgABAAAAAAAWABQrYt3E7OllKRCEmL3FL589l78_5wAAAAAAAAAAImog8ATiyw4ACAjxILmbcIO7ixv3pCtwUMZ1VQGKus54F9lZ8-w5ECD5ZuiICAjwIG6ynCyFTLPE7Rgk-0ZGCtBDyqNQx8YvaSZNHy8D8p8jCAjwIMX8zoD2Be1YWvcx_bexVPRmBX0hK-do8b8t9SarimQVCAjxIG6XtpqIEclLlhzcK1LVjqoPGrjjmLnyno8tcETMzECECAjwIF6mlfXOFY51JhrK4eze8zQlKV75OYZYqbtyi8BWxmAsCAjwIKKUcJmVoz-u-geiRV_-ZHdF0VEPXaEPFWf_JX_0e7G2CAjxIGMeD0Z5QWNKBcAEpHht007FFIILW6aSJ8f3CMkKNsneCAjwIBFr6Je8rkB7kwhPGbq0yRgFwZsvW9JhY5sXDRtrq0QwCAjwIAHAwXaus-yUgKICJB5mVvx8VZuJgjwnpb0qWPg1pi6DCAjxIAJhb8cefkVHTAMymdsxa-_i-tUua62LcpALQnPG7R9_CAjwIDvsFqBhPfAL6TCtXZd7gBWmMpx6iiZ-Ug0Jf_LlcstgCAjwIDJRBX6Q0Vge-ra-k1_g76yJWTEp6WWF13I3JpTnsZPJCAjwILykZCbkC9VQgl5gytPKKir6T9nTvKR6y05iWSHBTQgzCAgABYiWDXPXGQED45c78Ah-sGbmQAwfZwjwEAYqxtHnZiPZnJEGPx_JvKsI8SDXkqDg17YsZIrEz5acRx7mBXCKW5mKNgRYnw_-U2cpDgjxBGrArDrwCEfK6Mono428_wCD3-MNLvkMji4taHR0cHM6Ly9hbGljZS5idGMuY2FsZW5kYXIub3BlbnRpbWVzdGFtcHMub3JnCPAg10nyJ6Jn4kshQQQCKE0Lvj3hBC6nLRBVIzaPV4eh8VwI8CCQaAqWlxEbac_XOq1MOlf9iOKHEsxXspzbjK0vLpy8BwjwII3iRbRXUcDxrhAdkZmFlI15nySCSEZ7g922tF1Xln5DCPEgYYvZ1L4v4rPu_UqLfcHPtwSb2OH2GhPgVcVhhH6DpkQI8CDZCIoR20sC-uchP40oAmcLm9EJFV7xzwplj54AeVadXQjxILvLBjPFpCoz29m9Yf2qRnV7PI9GqxE8ozVQfk9QwCqrCPEgZXcMudvEoB_MJ8tqOW2PLTKAIeQBnE-1bfzptRc2gR8I8VkBAAAAAfXq-bmxWqOz7B5wKkwjzHGv2R4s7Y0Z76LqXWYNhmz0AAAAAAD-____Av0cAAAAAAAAFgAUl-skmdZDtn7Hnub6mF4HP2uVn7oAAAAAAAAAACJqIPAE4MsOAAgI8CBDmQsbEXc46Hu8DivhCBM1LGExa4TTM-wo7HpoCVjBTQgI8CCty5vkQtPHzzs8xqArOYhVSjgaDoG1ou3cojv5_P7wQQgI8SDQWB0kdXCTwbk-TqTt0QfRMyzDNLOtU1XXFgvGSRlW8wgI8CC2PKa_QCIBZtrXodq1GdEzppISMsMRDOnzr2gFjLKOAAgI8CCwQ_QF67bcFk_uJ2s0VCZmf5PGIjTmTCpt_qnVY5p_8AgI8SAbzyx7z-oxPMju6PvtQhzrJIQyH2ZAc9oyLuYemzbmZQgI8CC5bh7J74uUk91r8LwybHQFCNBC3PWeuwtMCCNFKWj19AgI8SAf4R2TUNPjaX_PWDUImpoITK0JoW89zaMKnD1wlEEi8AgI8SC2vNmdm7eyP5Ytl1yTzT0njliMdALl1ViKG-s3bG2zswgI8CCpbIVNz1GFVXdJk2zd82hBUoNFFemUPBt7IJdWEOciPwgI8CBtYdRQcrtX1FtCm1SxF7sx-5cO04U8KzbJh8fqBkyReAgI8CBHs2LGmX6gI-lV7yp1RrV7_tGfdiBAwnEFF6B6yXHzAQgI8CATotVmbXBMAixhZ-QKy5Q4lR0FusdA_wcIC1TbB7GmxAgIAAWIlg1z1xkBA-KXOw"],"envelope":["AE9wZW5UaW1lc3RhbXBzAABQcm9vZgC_ieLohOiSlAEItp1YkRSV2VKW_xzKWd9S6WXvWu3m7Wql8tIymFY0uwHxILaWLCuf-AlDpQFCZ8s28fuSVXpHhx2EVq_bFLaxImXGCPAgLEy5fLslzDjaGtiuAc_ZLqeS6XtGAY29_0XK1x-YBpYI8CC6HkLHa45lF9kpdtwNLZpJwJ6FQrs3nnzMbXU3O4ogogjwIFrJDdsE-9SJUe16KNoNFWLU57cUVxMPf2tq-hpOoIagCPAgdL2rRNVD_UBj4oTTJtjDJn3mW20S40UWt92uUJyrjKgI8CDy9b3T0PXRXRTtb8WKCFWeG3nEWFWO2m_P0VZSVCz6FwjxIIm3kyeVtjvVU64SFRlHutTKiUSGdRqsE75jst9R4-HcCPEg4rqGLBuUkm_3jUcKp88ZZh3m3UlQLzvNY7ka68qj80wI8SCDmR0G6GV1bT7GyRXBqEjvzcE3qRopJxP_SHiWmwBlpQjxIFf8EhaVa-ubjpYx3wEAcKGxkzfUQq6B-8jimpRd8IqnCPAgy6DmLQtIuWm-zrDRmaSy95vcFWsjvWyppQO7wIWrfC4I8SAQuuTPkAGyvS_wKMy9BtKvnki2puESdY2vXem8hT1uIQjwIBGYo5Vxy-d7U5zKv5vp3Ii7hJPH_BDLCzA13c47p9q7CP_wCHbghVgOFMuNCPAQPZK2lHbTMqcCYUotzOQcmQjwIJ7ruRIs6HnufKxCpmLUgeUl0aUu0ov4_3PqcppS-bddCPEgI530vHzdwz_3o9jYQ3WablSaV64Wfn7Pmby5WLyI-A0I8QRqwKw78AhITF7Tr3a1xP8Ag9_jDS75DI4sK2h0dHBzOi8vYm9iLmJ0Yy5jYWxlbmRhci5vcGVudGltZXN0YW1wcy5vcmcI8CBXWeNiWFWltfHE0nkDXsVKIykUUwuObhsnN-2fvBt98gjwIM5Vf7j68sOFgVysYMc5S09Hho-fqxYW3oQ4oKUX7JpPCPAgaKHHQB3sdd9w1hu4NMh7vmb-p0X2r4uyVKKCj1G7S28I8SAW2Mg6Bzi9ygjrrjIYB7w90fwMcxH24SsqLmzPyAMGfwjwIMQ863zlveYIpNKWVrZaDOa4vowwoOg2CcTW8gXtxK3dCPEgrZxGGAf-t8jhz_eLMUyBN1IhNrdYDRcNHWvQcwNG9woI8CCVOUHG1YXudbaFIgUYvrCIevRWvb2ubhQAo-z0duD0rQjxIDBeKerVGkO3J2eXDwdraSioXbIWsdIPEN1s8pIwJIS2CPAgV2kB3n3JZ5HwBQjpRL1CWKnqvdCjZk3RcALk6N2wHigI8CB-wbljNlfqElD25uZkNg6taS81YDRU2vfMqGVQ420O9AjxWQEAAAABJM43UU6MLMRrPlCUqossvu1q_knons5yylyWTgxZzWUAAAAAAP7___8CLgABAAAAAAAWABQrYt3E7OllKRCEmL3FL589l78_5wAAAAAAAAAAImog8ATiyw4ACAjxILmbcIO7ixv3pCtwUMZ1VQGKus54F9lZ8-w5ECD5ZuiICAjwIG6ynCyFTLPE7Rgk-0ZGCtBDyqNQx8YvaSZNHy8D8p8jCAjwIMX8zoD2Be1YWvcx_bexVPRmBX0hK-do8b8t9SarimQVCAjxIG6XtpqIEclLlhzcK1LVjqoPGrjjmLnyno8tcETMzECECAjwIF6mlfXOFY51JhrK4eze8zQlKV75OYZYqbtyi8BWxmAsCAjwIKKUcJmVoz-u-geiRV_-ZHdF0VEPXaEPFWf_JX_0e7G2CAjxIGMeD0Z5QWNKBcAEpHht007FFIILW6aSJ8f3CMkKNsneCAjwIBFr6Je8rkB7kwhPGbq0yRgFwZsvW9JhY5sXDRtrq0QwCAjwIAHAwXaus-yUgKICJB5mVvx8VZuJgjwnpb0qWPg1pi6DCAjxIAJhb8cefkVHTAMymdsxa-_i-tUua62LcpALQnPG7R9_CAjwIDvsFqBhPfAL6TCtXZd7gBWmMpx6iiZ-Ug0Jf_LlcstgCAjwIDJRBX6Q0Vge-ra-k1_g76yJWTEp6WWF13I3JpTnsZPJCAjwILykZCbkC9VQgl5gytPKKir6T9nTvKR6y05iWSHBTQgzCAgABYiWDXPXGQED45c78Ah-sGbmQAwfZwjwEAYqxtHnZiPZnJEGPx_JvKsI8SDXkqDg17YsZIrEz5acRx7mBXCKW5mKNgRYnw_-U2cpDgjxBGrArDrwCEfK6Mono428_wCD3-MNLvkMji4taHR0cHM6Ly9hbGljZS5idGMuY2FsZW5kYXIub3BlbnRpbWVzdGFtcHMub3JnCPAg10nyJ6Jn4kshQQQCKE0Lvj3hBC6nLRBVIzaPV4eh8VwI8CCQaAqWlxEbac_XOq1MOlf9iOKHEsxXspzbjK0vLpy8BwjwII3iRbRXUcDxrhAdkZmFlI15nySCSEZ7g922tF1Xln5DCPEgYYvZ1L4v4rPu_UqLfcHPtwSb2OH2GhPgVcVhhH6DpkQI8CDZCIoR20sC-uchP40oAmcLm9EJFV7xzwplj54AeVadXQjxILvLBjPFpCoz29m9Yf2qRnV7PI9GqxE8ozVQfk9QwCqrCPEgZXcMudvEoB_MJ8tqOW2PLTKAIeQBnE-1bfzptRc2gR8I8VkBAAAAAfXq-bmxWqOz7B5wKkwjzHGv2R4s7Y0Z76LqXWYNhmz0AAAAAAD-____Av0cAAAAAAAAFgAUl-skmdZDtn7Hnub6mF4HP2uVn7oAAAAAAAAAACJqIPAE4MsOAAgI8CBDmQsbEXc46Hu8DivhCBM1LGExa4TTM-wo7HpoCVjBTQgI8CCty5vkQtPHzzs8xqArOYhVSjgaDoG1ou3cojv5_P7wQQgI8SDQWB0kdXCTwbk-TqTt0QfRMyzDNLOtU1XXFgvGSRlW8wgI8CC2PKa_QCIBZtrXodq1GdEzppISMsMRDOnzr2gFjLKOAAgI8CCwQ_QF67bcFk_uJ2s0VCZmf5PGIjTmTCpt_qnVY5p_8AgI8SAbzyx7z-oxPMju6PvtQhzrJIQyH2ZAc9oyLuYemzbmZQgI8CC5bh7J74uUk91r8LwybHQFCNBC3PWeuwtMCCNFKWj19AgI8SAf4R2TUNPjaX_PWDUImpoITK0JoW89zaMKnD1wlEEi8AgI8SC2vNmdm7eyP5Ytl1yTzT0njliMdALl1ViKG-s3bG2zswgI8CCpbIVNz1GFVXdJk2zd82hBUoNFFemUPBt7IJdWEOciPwgI8CBtYdRQcrtX1FtCm1SxF7sx-5cO04U8KzbJh8fqBkyReAgI8CBHs2LGmX6gI-lV7yp1RrV7_tGfdiBAwnEFF6B6yXHzAQgI8CATotVmbXBMAixhZ-QKy5Q4lR0FusdA_wcIC1TbB7GmxAgIAAWIlg1z1xkBA-KXOw"]},"log":{"leaf_index":"2074","tree_size":"2123","proof":["90f9897cb6c5758dc2b0a239b3a4494d3032e5e9bd9a859c61c4f243d010fed8","668623fc93ae25c98eb2393c75b1a86c9b711aa6b11fa414186e99d8b32cb734","4546bb94c1b25083c6b6febec9ff3a2927edc52b9542628f83aeb20e634a6e3b","46d537d30b6a07570bef48f4ad328fad81a902d48d24f0364a17723752bd57c6","e97ad824022ccbcba010f8b7fe0d807e7b91202ed56aee3209d2170c0c708a35","9e2eab6351497bb7630c20edf604158f6e0b1888784eae40ff069205cc38e5c4","e6fe28a74db11e411f7b825398eaff5c6a5c1228133acc9bc663eaf6ba57e637","3c578dccc15502c5f3efe228cadc99fee76ab536ed01f66b14d316fdcc157429"],"checkpoint":"pubphys.com/log/v1\n2123\npXVcluz7BF4vgChQs6lShuU0386gCH0RxrC1sxyE3rI=\n\n— pubphys.com/log/v1 JFPwIOLzsUD22XoTVyTfk/FMVj/u3f3DxZk4V/Ws10KVSS+8WQSwhunQ//EAhyS9Td5CyM0E++85GMezmKd8240j9Q8=\n","promise":null},"orcid_key_evidence":[],"attesting":null}