{"record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"d016a8352dde3ebd372525f11ba78a98374dab3ac556c61a380073947a5d47d5","created":"2026-10-03T07:18:10Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["5475cf5dc5b1a72283d26dc95dc6e00d7ea4e00096a7c6492e409a1816eeb011"],"salt":"d4a1d8b569a2694a13219541cd93e1daedeff90430cf9e15e4995a97f7f366bd","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"mechanism","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"stat.extreme-events-predictability.rogue-wave-statistics","kind":"phenomenon","literature_status":"contested","n":"1","parents":[],"plain":"Rogue waves are ocean or optical waves far taller than their neighbors. It is disputed whether they come mostly from random addition of ordinary waves or from a nonlinear focusing instability, and how much the instability raises their probability.","posed_since":"2003","precise":"For directional random surface gravity waves in deep water described by the Zakharov equation or the 2D nonlinear Schrodinger equation, determine how the exceedance probability of crest-to-trough height $H > 2 H_s$ depends on the Benjamin-Feir index BFI (steepness divided by spectral bandwidth) and on directional spreading, and whether it exceeds second-order (bound-wave) statistics in realistic directional seas. An answer is a quantitative law tested against field and tank data.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Large tank experiments and field records with measured spectra showing whether exceedance probabilities rise with BFI beyond second-order theory at realistic directional spreading.","status_note":"","title":"Effect of modulational instability on rogue wave statistics","topic_ref":"3cc2a242217c0631de30c1e7f17b417925702a48deedb658cb354b09c691f239"},"attested":{"attestation":{"batch":null,"client_id":null,"id_token_sha256":null,"kind":"platform"},"record_hash":"a2622a45d5ac8f0052a9ed8926c13f2bbdc9b1efb5a53a0916f547b125589f8d","schema":"pubphys.attested/1"},"envelope":{"attested_hash":"facf4e530f675d0db583f6913a334c95c145b371ead420bce8f2cfdb7f2258f5","platform_signature":{"key_id":"c6afc19b31429869751f06879c75cd64ea92654423d15b44be775bf1310a60da","sig":"R40l39a4qzeq9gJFGw7vCwAHKKmD70jJjXlWLT9nnI-16UwBXuYGW_QS199k0x_PrjAGJ4O4S5nyoZV_neGdBw"},"schema":"pubphys.envelope/1"},"record_hash":"a2622a45d5ac8f0052a9ed8926c13f2bbdc9b1efb5a53a0916f547b125589f8d","leaf_index":2077}