{"record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"6574a0618822127f18bf3cb6080cf757f96d0baed87ed0e85b85705489e4d91c","created":"2026-10-15T23:43:22Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["7119c8ec09e1f8562bd693417ae0b63a3e1c01b4bceda73403c0ce2c2ce6b719","ce59fb6cd812fc05906d0c60a71c75ea22bc686bcf38e7c3ef7010834d98ee7b"],"salt":"2e01b3069476830a55fc1a5bcc3b706ed10f2ccd9f2b61ef37a911f449902ca2","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"yes-no","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"earth.climate-sensitivity.hot-models","kind":"well-posed","literature_status":"partially-resolved","n":"2","parents":[],"plain":"Several recent climate models warm by more than 5 degrees for doubled $\\mathrm{CO_2}$. Past climates such as the last ice age may show this is too much.","posed_since":"","precise":"Determine whether combined constraints from the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Pliocene, the early Eocene and the historical record exclude $\\mathrm{ECS} > 5\\ \\mathrm{K}$ at the 95 percent level, accounting for state dependence of feedbacks and forcing uncertainties. An answer is a posterior probability for $\\mathrm{ECS} > 5\\ \\mathrm{K}$ with stated assumptions.","problem_ref":"7119c8ec09e1f8562bd693417ae0b63a3e1c01b4bceda73403c0ce2c2ce6b719","references":"","settled_by":"Bayesian synthesis of paleoclimate proxies and model emergent constraints with explicit state-dependence and structural uncertainty.","status_note":"","title":"Can paleoclimate evidence rule out climate sensitivity above 5 K?","topic_ref":null},"attested":{"attestation":{"batch":null,"client_id":null,"id_token_sha256":null,"kind":"platform"},"record_hash":"ad75238232a84abdf6b5fae8b71b52046d1414b9c55663a3fc72de481049a66e","schema":"pubphys.attested/1"},"envelope":{"attested_hash":"09fbce6f141fed1e837bdb096e077d0780b2e497357922e7e37f84f1cc35d094","platform_signature":{"key_id":"c6afc19b31429869751f06879c75cd64ea92654423d15b44be775bf1310a60da","sig":"Ct6BNys-sKLGA72O2XotCJ3gUDet2f6ZEvLMl6GYTQqjjfzJ4KtKRoWBFPkvAwdWR6qMvASkMVd_ilEbaJbbCA"},"schema":"pubphys.envelope/1"},"record_hash":"ad75238232a84abdf6b5fae8b71b52046d1414b9c55663a3fc72de481049a66e","leaf_index":3176}