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Past climates such as the last ice age may show this is too much.","posed_since":"","precise":"Determine whether combined constraints from the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Pliocene, the early Eocene and the historical record exclude $\\mathrm{ECS} > 5\\ \\mathrm{K}$ at the 95 percent level, accounting for state dependence of feedbacks and forcing uncertainties. An answer is a posterior probability for $\\mathrm{ECS} > 5\\ \\mathrm{K}$ with stated assumptions.","problem_ref":"7119c8ec09e1f8562bd693417ae0b63a3e1c01b4bceda73403c0ce2c2ce6b719","references":"","settled_by":"Bayesian synthesis of paleoclimate proxies and model emergent constraints with explicit state-dependence and structural uncertainty.","status_note":"","title":"Can paleoclimate evidence rule out climate sensitivity above 5 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