{"record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"bf65adfc357267b5a8298d73089d8ad9764d2c971254a1b060394c0a4b106fea","created":"2026-10-03T07:18:03Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["5475cf5dc5b1a72283d26dc95dc6e00d7ea4e00096a7c6492e409a1816eeb011"],"salt":"21094c5625b0034980cc2a25053f38d38e1df4a7d5df7a3adfa8d51d7abb9d9e","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"mechanism","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"earth.tropical-convection.qbo-disruptions","kind":"phenomenon","literature_status":"partially-resolved","n":"1","parents":[],"plain":"High above the equator, stratospheric winds flip between east and west roughly every 28 months, a pattern so regular it was used for forecasting. This rhythm broke unexpectedly in 2016 and again in 2020, and the reason and future frequency of such breaks are unclear.","posed_since":"2016","precise":"Explain the 2015 to 2016 and 2019 to 2020 disruptions of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as a response to extratropical Rossby-wave momentum fluxes reaching the equator, determine the preconditioning required, and predict whether disruptions become more frequent with warming. An answer is a mechanism reproduced in models with a realistic internally generated QBO and a projected disruption frequency.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Ensembles of high-top models with internally generated QBOs that reproduce both disruptions from observed initial conditions and agree on projected disruption statistics.","status_note":"Both events are attributed to equatorward Rossby-wave momentum fluxes from the Northern and Southern winter stratospheres respectively, but future frequency remains unknown.","title":"Why was the quasi-biennial oscillation disrupted in 2016 and 2020?","topic_ref":"c9db1fbc79d321283b12b86e0d59db6abd38f95e1c83af1ec648becceb5194d9"},"attested":{"attestation":{"batch":null,"client_id":null,"id_token_sha256":null,"kind":"platform"},"record_hash":"bd349da50730db05ae4a2f9fbf1d244a976a3fa9cbc79fd6244c0eaa6fd354ce","schema":"pubphys.attested/1"},"envelope":{"attested_hash":"f5da0249fabcb97ef824994301933d02d585a759a3bc04c0d80f6fa4b0b33ab1","platform_signature":{"key_id":"c6afc19b31429869751f06879c75cd64ea92654423d15b44be775bf1310a60da","sig":"cqHpYoJSVDcazx6XaDS_aKryblk_wVnMSCuYViPR6KhUeYHnAwKGNlMK_FOQkPg7P8wQ-qjObOCtqvgH5_JACA"},"schema":"pubphys.envelope/1"},"record_hash":"bd349da50730db05ae4a2f9fbf1d244a976a3fa9cbc79fd6244c0eaa6fd354ce","leaf_index":1377}