{"record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"0b1be380cc92558c2042e136cf711ef368ae4351790923c933d00973c36db3ef","created":"2026-10-15T23:43:22Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["03fa19849b4f244cb7b8f7f80a6d9fa9c04ed61e7338893ba4251aeb209fbd91","ce59fb6cd812fc05906d0c60a71c75ea22bc686bcf38e7c3ef7010834d98ee7b"],"salt":"3cab6083830be0d2ff10d99088f896c4767c94ddd8e65f30d7447bdaac0ebe95","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"value","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"earth.tropical-convection.cyclone-number","kind":"phenomenon","literature_status":"open","n":"2","parents":[],"plain":"Earth has about 80 to 90 hurricanes and typhoons a year, and this number has stayed roughly steady for decades. No theory explains why it is this number and not 10 or 1000, or how it will change with warming.","posed_since":"","precise":"Derive the global annual tropical cyclone frequency (about 85 per year) from the large-scale state, specifying whether genesis is limited by the rate of seed disturbances or by environmental conditions, and predict its sign and magnitude of change under $\\mathrm{CO_2}$ doubling. An answer is a theory or validated genesis index that reproduces present climatology and agrees with convection-permitting simulations across climates.","problem_ref":"03fa19849b4f244cb7b8f7f80a6d9fa9c04ed61e7338893ba4251aeb209fbd91","references":"","settled_by":"A genesis theory whose predicted frequency changes match convection-permitting global simulations across a range of imposed climates and the observed interannual record.","status_note":"","title":"What sets the number of tropical cyclones Earth has each year?","topic_ref":null},"attested":{"attestation":{"batch":null,"client_id":null,"id_token_sha256":null,"kind":"platform"},"record_hash":"bde2bbe60dbf22ed2e7575b078248076d4782c4bc2c1583d1b7c122927d09738","schema":"pubphys.attested/1"},"envelope":{"attested_hash":"3bda679bceef650e2185ab0b921af0e17fc2fb16475c2499da1ef8fcb1bb01e5","platform_signature":{"key_id":"c6afc19b31429869751f06879c75cd64ea92654423d15b44be775bf1310a60da","sig":"fJPaU5614NXr1fb2dcHMEFXjOAi05REPg58Rbw-rUB7qbW1yO8AfvuZ7oLwbSmWkrly6dz9cNs75g7ucJRPQDw"},"schema":"pubphys.envelope/1"},"record_hash":"bde2bbe60dbf22ed2e7575b078248076d4782c4bc2c1583d1b7c122927d09738","leaf_index":3236}