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No theory explains why it is this number and not 10 or 1000, or how it will change with warming.","posed_since":"","precise":"Derive the global annual tropical cyclone frequency (about 85 per year) from the large-scale state, specifying whether genesis is limited by the rate of seed disturbances or by environmental conditions, and predict its sign and magnitude of change under $\\mathrm{CO_2}$ doubling. An answer is a theory or validated genesis index that reproduces present climatology and agrees with convection-permitting simulations across climates.","problem_ref":"03fa19849b4f244cb7b8f7f80a6d9fa9c04ed61e7338893ba4251aeb209fbd91","references":"","settled_by":"A genesis theory whose predicted frequency changes match convection-permitting global simulations across a range of imposed climates and the observed interannual record.","status_note":"","title":"What sets the number of tropical cyclones Earth has each 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