{"record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"3c672965ef6591024c4361f83133754fa00aca2771c6570ebd5507d100163761","created":"2026-10-03T07:18:02Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["5475cf5dc5b1a72283d26dc95dc6e00d7ea4e00096a7c6492e409a1816eeb011"],"salt":"0cc561b66378a43daecd85856ce7890ab980d4e1b3dcb52205911492d9db3bb0","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"value","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"earth.earthquake-physics.predictability-limit","kind":"well-posed","literature_status":"open","n":"1","parents":[],"plain":"Earthquakes cluster in time, which allows rough probability forecasts. Whether any physics or data can do much better than that is unknown.","posed_since":"","precise":"Quantify the maximum probability gain over ETAS achievable for $M \\ge 6$ earthquakes in windows of about 30 days and 100 km, using any combination of seismic, geodetic, hydrological or electromagnetic data. An answer is either a prospectively tested forecast with gain significantly above 1 in a CSEP-type experiment (CSEP: a community testing framework for earthquake forecasts), or an information-theoretic bound showing gains are limited.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Multi-year prospective forecast experiments scored against ETAS with likelihood-based information gain.","status_note":"A 2026 review (arXiv:2607.26918) frames predictability in information-theoretic terms; no method has shown large prospective gain.","title":"How predictable are large earthquakes beyond clustering statistics?","topic_ref":"1dbf2e518640764e9008c15991558e9c0810fdb6b00292d36b150438ae8a1784"},"attested":{"attestation":{"batch":null,"client_id":null,"id_token_sha256":null,"kind":"platform"},"record_hash":"c9d339389266b7015b6f13d616deec3e979817d4c8044eb9a2e60db12e4ef63c","schema":"pubphys.attested/1"},"envelope":{"attested_hash":"184586faa91223f349059faa568bf79d357a1f06ebf0a1b6efab76f4ed4591cf","platform_signature":{"key_id":"c6afc19b31429869751f06879c75cd64ea92654423d15b44be775bf1310a60da","sig":"d7f2iR0lsYrpiv3egpgy4ZMil-Nz6wZMxPlOzbqu4-7WZkMXVRIjJIAkHV706X6mJkrzgczFutEmK04S64UFDw"},"schema":"pubphys.envelope/1"},"record_hash":"c9d339389266b7015b6f13d616deec3e979817d4c8044eb9a2e60db12e4ef63c","leaf_index":1313}