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Whether any physics or data can do much better than that is unknown.","posed_since":"","precise":"Quantify the maximum probability gain over ETAS achievable for $M \\ge 6$ earthquakes in windows of about 30 days and 100 km, using any combination of seismic, geodetic, hydrological or electromagnetic data. An answer is either a prospectively tested forecast with gain significantly above 1 in a CSEP-type experiment (CSEP: a community testing framework for earthquake forecasts), or an information-theoretic bound showing gains are limited.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Multi-year prospective forecast experiments scored against ETAS with likelihood-based information gain.","status_note":"A 2026 review (arXiv:2607.26918) frames predictability in information-theoretic terms; no method has shown large prospective gain.","title":"How predictable are large earthquakes beyond clustering 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