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Whether new subduction zones begin by themselves or are pushed by neighboring plates is debated.","posed_since":"","precise":"Determine the conditions under which subduction initiates: spontaneously (gravitational foundering of old dense lithosphere along a weak zone) or induced (by plate convergence), and the roles of mantle plumes and inherited weak zones. An answer is a criterion in terms of lithospheric age, weak-zone strength and applied force, from thermomechanical models with lab-constrained rheology, tested against Cenozoic initiation events such as Izu-Bonin-Mariana near 52 Ma (review: Stern and Gerya, Tectonophysics 2018, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2017.10.014).","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Dated magmatic and stratigraphic records of forearcs at young subduction zones compared with thermomechanical models using only experimentally constrained rheology.","status_note":"Ocean drilling of the Izu-Bonin-Mariana forearc in 2014 recovered the volcanic sequence expected from spontaneous initiation; whether induced initiation dominates elsewhere remains debated.","title":"How do new subduction zones 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