{"record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"e7dfdd6c9864042d0fbd8e17b4d99bf7192a3eeab0f6eac96df0e697a5117255","created":"2026-10-03T07:18:02Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["5475cf5dc5b1a72283d26dc95dc6e00d7ea4e00096a7c6492e409a1816eeb011"],"salt":"23b08403c5f3c4ffa114881355b1fe1183cbc6827de7a3ad17dc23c441056727","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"yes-no","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"earth.geodynamo.reversal-forecast","kind":"well-posed","literature_status":"open","n":"1","parents":[],"plain":"The main part of the field has weakened over the last two centuries and a weak patch over the South Atlantic is growing. It is unknown whether such signs announce a coming flip.","posed_since":"","precise":"Using satellite-era, historical and archeomagnetic field models (axial dipole decline since about 1840, growth of the South Atlantic Anomaly), determine whether any observable statistic of the core-surface field forecasts a reversal or excursion within 1e3 to 1e4 yr with skill above chance. An answer is a forecasting statistic validated retrospectively on paleomagnetic records and on long dynamo simulations, or a demonstration, on long reversing dynamo simulations, that no core-surface statistic has skill above chance at these lead times.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Retrospective forecast tests on long reversing dynamo simulations and on high-resolution sediment records of past reversals and excursions.","status_note":"","title":"Can an impending reversal or excursion be detected from today's field?","topic_ref":"e13e768be35f03c6e8ec9a4a4d6987bded1527805358b1af395bbdf03b08e310"},"attested":{"attestation":{"batch":null,"client_id":null,"id_token_sha256":null,"kind":"platform"},"record_hash":"f312f67f50211e9c564e53eca1ab9bee06ef68a271e98fa3a08a980e5ab4edab","schema":"pubphys.attested/1"},"envelope":{"attested_hash":"904fdc6e96ed87778941344944676f8f94ecaefb3e8f65ddfa90a3e6267a7a27","platform_signature":{"key_id":"c6afc19b31429869751f06879c75cd64ea92654423d15b44be775bf1310a60da","sig":"c1kJce9IEOZl8zxA5OjsF9_E9ZAD4kD9l3PE6UoGcYXD6FhimhZC6J54cUPaVLL3Abze8q-eov4tobRJn2j1Dg"},"schema":"pubphys.envelope/1"},"record_hash":"f312f67f50211e9c564e53eca1ab9bee06ef68a271e98fa3a08a980e5ab4edab","leaf_index":1317}