{"schema":"pubphys.bundle/1","record":{"author":{"account_ref":null,"orcid":null},"builds_on":[],"content_schema":"pubphys.content.revision/1","content_sha256":"e7dfdd6c9864042d0fbd8e17b4d99bf7192a3eeab0f6eac96df0e697a5117255","created":"2026-10-03T07:18:02Z","files":[],"origin":{"assisted_by":[],"kind":"seed"},"parents":["5475cf5dc5b1a72283d26dc95dc6e00d7ea4e00096a7c6492e409a1816eeb011"],"salt":"23b08403c5f3c4ffa114881355b1fe1183cbc6827de7a3ad17dc23c441056727","schema":"pubphys.record/2","site":"pubphys.com","target":null,"type":"revision"},"content":{"answer_type":"yes-no","assisted_by":[],"external_id":"earth.geodynamo.reversal-forecast","kind":"well-posed","literature_status":"open","n":"1","parents":[],"plain":"The main part of the field has weakened over the last two centuries and a weak patch over the South Atlantic is growing. It is unknown whether such signs announce a coming flip.","posed_since":"","precise":"Using satellite-era, historical and archeomagnetic field models (axial dipole decline since about 1840, growth of the South Atlantic Anomaly), determine whether any observable statistic of the core-surface field forecasts a reversal or excursion within 1e3 to 1e4 yr with skill above chance. An answer is a forecasting statistic validated retrospectively on paleomagnetic records and on long dynamo simulations, or a demonstration, on long reversing dynamo simulations, that no core-surface statistic has skill above chance at these lead times.","problem_ref":null,"references":"","settled_by":"Retrospective forecast tests on long reversing dynamo simulations and on high-resolution sediment records of past reversals and excursions.","status_note":"","title":"Can an impending reversal or excursion be detected from today's 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