ASTRO In the literature: open

Predict the amplitude and timing of solar cycle 26

In plain words

Space weather depends on how active the next solar cycle will be, and past forecasts have often missed.

Precise statement

Predict the 13-month smoothed maximum sunspot number (SILSO version 2) of cycle 26 and its date, using polar magnetic field precursors at the cycle 25/26 minimum, surface flux transport models and dynamo data assimilation. Answer: a forecast with uncertainty registered before the minimum and scored against the observed maximum.

What would settle it

Comparison of forecasts registered before the cycle 25/26 minimum with the observed cycle 26 maximum.

Status in the literature

Unverified note

2024: cycle 25 reached its maximum in October 2024 with a smoothed sunspot number of about 161, above the 2019 NOAA-NASA panel forecast of 115.

See also