Revision 1

Accepted · first revision · record

Title: Does the tension persist in measurements independent of ladders and rulers?
Plain: Some methods measure the expansion rate in one step, using gravitational waves from colliding neutron stars or time delays between multiple images of a lensed quasar. They avoid both the distance ladder and the early-universe ruler.
Precise: Measure $h$ to 1 percent from at least one method independent of both the distance ladder and $r_d$: gravitational-wave standard sirens, strong-lens time delays with independent mass-profile constraints, water-maser distances, or $r_d$-free galaxy clustering. An answer is $h$ with uncertainty below 0.007 and a statement of which side it matches.
Settled by: About 200 standard sirens with electromagnetic counterparts, or tens of time-delay lenses with spatially resolved stellar kinematics.
Kind: well-posed
Answer type: value
References: (empty)
Literature status: open
Status note: A single quadruply lensed quasar (TDCOSMO XXV, 2026) gives $h = 0.732 (+0.048, -0.047)$; no ladder-free method reaches 1 percent.
Posed since: (empty)