Can paleoclimate evidence rule out climate sensitivity above 5 K?

Determine whether combined constraints from the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Pliocene, the early Eocene and the historical record exclude $\mathrm{ECS} > 5\ \mathrm{K}$ at the 95 percent level, accounting for state dependence of feedbacks and forcing uncertainties. An answer is a posterior probability for $\mathrm{ECS} > 5\ \mathrm{K}$ with stated assumptions.

Bayesian synthesis of paleoclimate proxies and model emergent constraints with explicit state-dependence and structural uncertainty.