How does upper-atmosphere density respond to geomagnetic storms?
In plain words
During magnetic storms the upper atmosphere heats and expands, increasing drag on satellites; in February 2022 a moderate storm caused the loss of dozens of newly launched satellites. Models still miss the size and timing of these density surges.
Precise statement
Predict the time-dependent neutral mass density at 200 to 600 km altitude during storms from solar-wind driving, including Joule heating distribution, nitric-oxide radiative cooling and the composition response. An answer is a model reproducing observed storm-time density enhancements (for example the May 2024 storm) to within tens of percent in amplitude and hours in timing.
What would settle it
Accelerometer and orbit-derived densities from multiple satellites during major storms reproduced by a physics-based model driven only by upstream solar-wind data.