Can laser-driven inertial fusion reach target gain of 10? · revision history

Revision 2

Accepted · core change · record

Changes against revision 1:

Title · changed
Revision 1: Can laser-driven inertial fusion reach target gain of 10
Revision 2: Can laser-driven inertial fusion reach target gain of 10?
Plain
The best laser fusion shots now release a few times more fusion energy than the laser energy that hits the target. A power plant needs much more, and it is not known whether any target design can reach ten times with today's laser energies.
Precise · changed · core
Revision 1: Target gain $G$ = fusion yield / laser energy on target exceeded 1 at the National Ignition Facility in December 2022 with about 2.05e13 erg of laser energy. Determine whether G of at least 10 is reachable at laser energy of about 2e13 to 3e13 erg by any design (indirect drive, direct drive, shock ignition, magnetized targets) given measured limits from hydrodynamic instabilities, ablator-fuel mix and drive asymmetry. An answer is an experiment, or a radiation-hydrodynamics design validated against existing ignition shots.
Revision 2: Target gain $G$ $= \text{fusion yield}/\text{laser energy}$ on target exceeded 1 at the National Ignition Facility in December 2022 with about $2.05 \times 10^{13}$ erg of laser energy. Determine whether $G$ of at least 10 is reachable at laser energy of about $2 \times 10^{13}$ to $3 \times 10^{13}$ erg by any design (indirect drive, direct drive, shock ignition, magnetized targets) given measured limits from hydrodynamic instabilities, ablator-fuel mix and drive asymmetry. An answer is an experiment, or a radiation-hydrodynamics design validated against existing ignition shots.
Settled by
An implosion with G above 10, or validated simulations showing no design reaches it at that laser energy.
Kind
well-posed
Answer type
yes-no
References
(empty)
Literature status
open
Status note · changed
Revision 1: NIF reached target gain 4.13 on 7 April 2025 (8.6e13 erg yield from 2.08e13 erg of laser energy) and about 3.8 in June 2026; gain 10 has not been reached.
Revision 2: NIF reached target gain 4.13 on 7 April 2025 ($8.6 \times 10^{13}$ erg yield from $2.08 \times 10^{13}$ erg of laser energy) and about 3.8 in June 2026; gain 10 has not been reached.
Posed since
(empty)

Decisions