Is the AMOC already weakening toward collapse today?
In plain words
Some studies claim statistical warning signs that the overturning circulation is losing stability, while direct measurements since 2004 are too short to show a clear trend. The question is whether a collapse is near.
Precise statement
Using the RAPID array (since 2004), other transport arrays and proxy reconstructions (sea-surface temperature fingerprints, sediment grain size), determine whether the AMOC has declined since the mid-20th century beyond natural variability and whether early-warning indicators (rising variance and autocorrelation, freshwater-transport sign at 34 S) are physically valid for this system. An answer is a detected or rejected trend and stability-loss signal with stated confidence.
What would settle it
Multidecadal direct transport records combined with validated proxy indices showing a significant forced decline and a physically interpretable loss of resilience.
Status in the literature
Unverified note
Ditlevsen and Ditlevsen 2023 (Nature Communications) extrapolated a collapse between 2025 and 2095 from a sea-surface-temperature index, while RAPID transports since 2004 and the air-sea heat-flux reconstruction of Terhaar et al. 2025 (Nature Communications) show no significant decline, so the claim remains disputed.