Do mantle heat-flux changes cause superchrons and reversal-rate swings?
In plain words
The rate of pole flips has changed slowly over hundreds of millions of years, perhaps because the overlying rocky mantle changes how fast heat leaves the core. Whether that explains long flip-free periods is untested.
Precise statement
Test whether time variations of the total core-mantle boundary heat flow $Q_{\mathrm{cmb}}$ and its lateral pattern over 1e8 yr, taken from mantle-convection reconstructions, quantitatively reproduce the observed reversal-rate history including the Cretaceous Normal Superchron. An answer is either dynamo simulations driven by reconstructed CMB heat-flux histories that match the reversal-rate record, or a demonstration that rate swings of this size arise intrinsically at fixed boundary conditions.
What would settle it
Dynamo runs forced by plate-reconstruction-based CMB heat-flux histories compared statistically with the 0 to 200 Ma reversal record.
Related problems
- Special case of What triggers geomagnetic polarity reversals and sets their rate